Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024 | 2 a.m.
The second-most popular professional sport to bet on is back, as the 2024-2025 NBA season begins on Tuesday, October 22.
The sheer amount of future betting options is overwhelming, so let’s hone in on the most locally-relevant ones to preview the season. Last year’s inaugural In-Season Tournament was a smashing success, so it will return this year with the same format but new branding—it’s now called the Emirates NBA Cup.
The semifinals and championship game will take place at T-Mobile Arena on December 14 and 17, respectively. Group play, which includes all 30 teams in the NBA, begins at home sites on November 12.
Last year, teams were motivated to earn a trip to Las Vegas and the $500,000 per-player award that goes to the winning team. Who will earn the prize this season?
Let’s fill out the bracket below, finding a bet to win each group before arriving at a championship game. Listed odds come from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook but picks are the best available in town on the chosen side with the sports book noted.
Eastern Conference Group A
New York Knicks +140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140), Philadelphia 76ers +150, Orlando Magic +360, Charlotte Hornets +1500, Brooklyn Nets +5000
Orlando took great pride in knocking off tournament favorite Boston in the group stage last year and ended up falling short of the knockout stage only on a point-differential tiebreaker. The Magic have demonstrated how much this event means to them, and they should be even better this year with underrated defensive stopper Kentavious Caldwell-Pope joining the promising young core of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs.
Philadelphia and New York had the splashier offseason acquisitions—led by Paul George and Karl-Anthony Towns, respectively—but a sea change at the top of the roster usually takes time to sync.
Pick: Magic at +360 (SuperBook)
Eastern Conference Group B
Milwaukee Bucks +135, Indiana Pacers +200, Miami Heat +300, Toronto Raptors +1800, Detroit Pistons +1800
The Pacers lost to the Lakers in the championship game at T-Mobile Arena last December and look like a threat to get back behind tournament breakout star Tyrese Haliburton. The Bucks have the oldest roster in the NBA, so they’re likely to place more of a priority on health and rest early in the season to chase a playoff run.
Some of the same concerns exist with the Heat, though star Jimmy Butler and others within the organization have pledged to play more and “load-manage” less this season. They’re not as far back from the Bucks and Pacers as the odds indicate if they’re properly motivated.
Pick: Heat at +300 (SuperBook)
Eastern Conference Group C
Boston Celtics -150 (i.e. risking $150 to win $100), Cleveland Cavaliers +200, Atlanta Hawks +700, Chicago Bulls +3000, Washington Wizards +4000
Boston just achieved the ultimate goal, winning the NBA Finals in June, so it’s unlikely the Celtics place an emphasis on the NBA Cup. They’ll also be playing without starting center Kristaps Porzingis to start the year.
Cleveland, unlike when the two teams met in the second round of the playoffs, looks healthier and has a dangerous starting five led by the inside-out duo of Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers underachieved last year amid a disconnect between the coaching staff and players, but shrewd new head coach Kenny Atkinson should clean that up.
Pick: Cavaliers at +200 (SuperBook)
Western Conference Group A
Minnesota Timberwolves +150, Sacramento Kings +275, Houston Rockets +325, Los Angeles Clippers +450, Portland Trail Blazers +3000
The Timberwolves are another contending team that might start slow while they break in a new rotation that includes a pair of pieces acquired in the trade that sent Towns to the Knicks, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The Rockets are intriguing because they have so much young talent, but progression isn’t always linear; they may take a step back this season after being last year’s big surprise.
The Kings look like the undervalued side here. The addition of DeMar DeRozan could make them a regular-season powerhouse—tournament games are counted as part of the regular-season standings, after all—that racks up more victories than the Timberwolves.
Pick: Kings at +350 (Boyd Sports)
Western Conference Group B
Oklahoma City Thunder +110, Phoenix Suns +225, Los Angeles Lakers +450, San Antonio Spurs +1100, Utah Jazz +2000
The Lakers landed in a tough group for their NBA Cup title defense. They just barely edged the Suns in the quarterfinals last year, 106-103, in what was perhaps the best game of the tournament.
Phoenix should be better this year, with Bradley Beal healthy coming into the season next to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. But both teams are staring up at the Thunder, which enter the year with the most complete roster in the NBA because of Porzingis’ injury.
Oklahoma City is so much better than every other team in not only this group but the whole conference that it should never be available at a plus-price.
Pick: Thunder at +115 (Caesars/William Hill)
Western Conference Group C
Denver Nuggets +250, Dallas Mavericks +250, Memphis Grizzlies +400, New Orleans Pelicans +425, Golden State Warriors +550
Everyone got hurt for the Grizzlies last year, including superstar Ja Morant. Now back at full strength and adding Rookie of the Year favorite big man Zach Edey, Memphis projects evenly with the last two Western Conference champions, Denver and Dallas, going into the season.
So why are they available at such a large price?
This is the traditional “Group of Death,” considering all five teams have a shot with the Pelicans having reached the semifinals a year ago and the Warriors still capable of outshooting any team on any given night.
The Warriors’ price is almost big enough to call for Steph Curry to lead a late-career run similar to the one eventual Tournament MVP LeBron James put together with the Lakers last year. But the rest of the roster is weakened while the Grizzlies look more well-rounded.
Pick: Grizzlies at +440 (Boyd Sports)
Semifinals and Championship
Miami threatens to make it two titles in seven months in Las Vegas after winning the NBA Summer League, but falls to Cleveland in the matinee of the semifinal doubleheader. Oklahoma City blows out Sacramento in the nightcap. That sets up a Thunder-Cavaliers showdown in the championship that delivers with plenty of suspense. Oklahoma City ultimately prevails with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claiming Most Valuable Player honors, but both teams are worth a bet at their current prices.
Picks to win: Oklahoma City Thunder at 8-to-1 (SuperBook) and Cleveland Cavaliers at 22-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)