Friday, March 21, 2025 | 2 a.m.
With less than a month remaining until the Stanley Cup Playoffs commence, the Vegas Golden Knights find themselves in a relatively secure position to clinch a postseason berth.
However, significant questions linger regarding their eventual seeding, potential opponents and home-ice advantage status.
Three distinct scenarios have emerged for their playoff path:
The best-case scenario
The Golden Knights have reclaimed the Pacific Division lead but face a formidable 12-point deficit in their pursuit of the Western Conference’s top seed, currently held by the Winnipeg Jets.
After a dominant December stretch that briefly saw them emerge as the NHL’s premier team with a two-point advantage over Winnipeg and Washington, the Golden Knights stumbled in January, posting a .500 record and temporarily surrendering their divisional lead.
While Vegas has since regained control of the Pacific, their competitors haven’t faltered. As of March 19, both the Jets and Capitals boast 98 points, compared with Vegas’ 86.
The Golden Knights could reclaim momentum and close the 12-point gap, but this would require Vegas to capitalize on its remaining 30 available points while hoping for stumbles from both Winnipeg and Washington.
Should Vegas overcome the odds and claim the Western Conference’s top position, they would face the second-lowest wild-card qualifier in the opening playoff round — potentially Vancouver, St. Louis, Calgary or Utah.
Among these potential matchups, Calgary appears most favorable for Vegas. Despite Vancouver’s geographic proximity, the Golden Knights have dominated the Flames in two meetings this season, outscoring them 8-0.
The team received positive news on the injury front, with William Karlsson and Shea Theodore expected to return for Game 1 of the playoffs. Theodore is anticipated to resume his role as the team’s premier defenseman, while Karlsson has reportedly shown significant improvement from his preinjury form.
The worst-case scenario
The Golden Knights’ play resembles that of the January slump, potentially paving the way for Edmonton — or even Los Angeles — to win the division.
Edmonton is just four points behind the Golden Knights in the standings, and the Kings are only a point behind the Oilers, meaning they could also jump the Golden Knights.
If Vegas falls to the third seed in the Pacific Division, a first-round series against the Kings would be likely. That would be trouble for Vegas, which has a 1-3 record this season against Los Angeles.
Vegas’ struggles with the Kings were magnified Feb. 24 when it took a 2-0 lead on the road, and then surrendered five unanswered goals in a 5-2 defeat.
The likely scenario
The Golden Knights have been good this season — just not perfect. They had the chance to have the best record in the league, but the January left them behind. Fortunately, they should still win the Pacific Division.
Edmonton briefly threatened Vegas’ dominance, catching the scent of the Pacific title before dropping three consecutive games.
While Edmonton wrestles with Los Angeles for the runner-up position, Vegas enjoys a comfortable cushion at the top, maintaining at least a four-point lead that seems unlikely to evaporate.
Clinching the Pacific Division would guarantee Vegas home-ice advantage through at least the first two playoff rounds.
The quarterfinal matchup against the first wild-card seed, potentially Minnesota, involves more travel than facing a Pacific rival like Vancouver, Utah or a California team, but Vegas has dominated the Wild this season with victories both at home (4-1) and in St. Paul (3-2).
The series would offer an intriguing narrative featuring Marc-André Fleury, the former Golden Knights goaltender now closing out his illustrious NHL career with Minnesota.
On the injury front, Karlsson’s return appears imminent within two to three weeks, as he continues practicing in a noncontact jersey. The team will prioritize getting him game-ready before the playoffs commence.
Theodore is expected back for the final regular-season games, with the typical recovery timeline for his broken wrist ranging from six to eight weeks.
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