Gasoline prices are expected to spike as much as 40 cents per gallon locally in the coming weeks, with the potential for a higher increase in the longer term, due to a combination of factors.
Issues with oil refineries in California and an annual switch from winter mix gas to summer mix gas will see gas prices in Southern Nevada skyrocket, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.
The Las Vegas Valley relies on California for the majority of its gasoline, so anytime there are issues with refineries or pipelines in the Golden State, Southern Nevada feels the trickle-down effect.
“California is a major supplier of gasoline to the Las Vegas market and as a result of several refinery issues that occurred in the last couple of weeks Las Vegas prices have already been climbing over the last week,” De Haan said.
Gas prices
The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas in Las Vegas on Wednesday was $3.84, a spike of 11 cents per gallon over the past week, according to AAA data. In the past month, gas prices have been up 20 cents per gallon. Prices jumped two cents overnight alone between Tuesday and Wednesday.
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded fuel in Nevada was $3.81, an increase of 3 cents per gallon overnight, 11 cents in the last week and 19 cents over the past month, AAA data showed.
The national average price for a gallon of gas was listed as $3.14 per gallon as of Wednesday. Nevada has the fourth most expensive price for a gallon of gas in the U.S., with only California ($4.74 per gallon), Hawaii ($4.55) and Washington ($4.07) seeing higher prices.
Just the beginning
As De Haan mentioned, this is just the beginning of the increase in gas prices.
“With some of these refinery issues wholesale gas prices are jumping and that push retail prices up even more here in the next couple of weeks,” De Haan said. “By the tune of probably 15 to 40 cents per gallon or so in the next two weeks.”
Despite the unpleasant news of gas prices expected to soar over the next few weeks, there is a silver lining.
“The only good news is that Las Vegas shares a schedule that it starts to make the transition later than California does to cleaner, summer gasoline,” De Haan said. “So, the price increase may not be quite as dramatic for Las Vegas. But as Las Vegas is primarily sourced from California, there will certainly be an upward trend coming to gas prices.”
Gas prices normally increase between February and mid-April, largely due to the switch from winter to summer gas, but the refinery issues in California are enhancing the spike this year.
“The takeaway is gas prices generally go up from about mid-February to about mid-April,” De Haan said. “They could go up a total of 20 to 65 cents per gallon, including what I mentioned today. So that would probably put Vegas back over the $4 per gallon mark, probably in the next month. Potentially a bit higher than that if there are more refinery issues.”
When prices might decrease
Based on California getting the refinery issues under control sometime soon, De Haan said prices should begin to decrease as May approaches, barring any other issues.
“Then by Memorial Day prices probably will start trending slowly back downward, so long there are no refinery issues,” De Haan said. “That’s kind of the normal seasonal ups-and-downs. Late winter through about mid-Spring they are actively climbing, then by late spring prices should show signs of slow decline.”
Looking a bit longer term, De Haan foresees Las Vegas gas prices looking similar to last summer.
“Prices will probably spend a lot of the summer over the $4 mark,” De Haan said.
Contact Mick Akers at makers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2920. Follow @mickakers on X.