Terrance Williams / AP, file
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the second half of the AFC Championship NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, in Baltimore, Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. The NFL announced Monday, May 13, that the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will open the season at home against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5. The game is a rematch of the AFC championship game in January, which the Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore.
Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024 | 2 a.m.
The preponderance of options has slowly made awards wagering perhaps the most popular vehicle of football future bets.
It’s an exercise that’s all about timing, requiring bettors to buy and sell on players at the right times throughout the season. And there’s nothing better for a portfolio than having a valuable starting position, so let’s dive through eight of the biggest markets available locally and find a bet or two in each one as the season rapidly approaches.
Heisman Trophy: Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe at 14-to-1
(BetFred Sportsbook at Virgin Hotels)
′The Crimson Tide quarterback finished last season playing at a Heisman level, helping knock off two-time defending national champion Georgia in the SEC title game before coming within an overtime of beating eventual 2024 champion Michigan.
Now he gets an offense even more suited to his strengths as a junior with the arrival of new coach Kalen DeBoer. The former Washington coach likes to throw deep and rely on his quarterbacks’ rushing ability—the two things Milroe does best.
Current Heisman favorite Dillon Gabriel, Oregon’s quarterback, was worth a bet when he sat most of the summer in this same range but he’s moved too far at as low as 5-to-1. The better approach now is to pick off contenders in the midrange like Milroe and hope Gabriel drifts upwards at some point in the season.
NFL Most Valuable Player: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at 6-to-1
(SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)
′The gap between the back-to-back Super Bowl champion and every other player in the NFL continues to widen. It’s certainly wider than this future pool indicates with players like Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow and Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud nipping at Mahomes’ heels at as low as 8-to-1.
The main concern with a player like two-time MVP Mahomes is voter fatigue, but that shouldn’t be as much of an issue this year considering he didn’t win the MVP award last year. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson claimed the honor last year—as given out in this column at 18-to-1—in a relatively down regular season for Mahomes.
But Mahomes is entering a quarterback’s traditional prime at 28 years old, and his numbers should increase across the board.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb at 10-to-1
(Circa Sports)
′The training-camp holdout of Dallas’ top receiver is keeping this price inflated to well beyond where it should rightfully stand. In all likelihood, the 25-year-old will get a new deal and go right back to producing at one of the highest clips in the league.
Only Miami receiver Tyreek Hill has been more prolific than Lamb over the past two years, but his price is much lower (7-to-1). The Dolphins may also be more cautious with Hill, as injuries have slowed him drastically late in the past two seasons.
Injuries are also a concern for reigning winner/San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey (8-to-1). This is trending toward becoming more of a wide receiver award anyway, as McCaffrey was only able to break the mold because he’s so involved in the passing game.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson at 16-to-1 (Circa) and Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike at 100-to-1 (SuperBook)
′The Lions’ defense has everything in place to take a leap into the NFL’s top 10 this year, and Hutchinson is the face of the unit. The 23-year-old should have the statistics, too, as he finished either first or second in the NFL last year in pressures, depending on the charting service (Pro Football Reference or Pro Football Focus, respectively). He was probably unlucky to have only 11.5 sacks in 2023.
Madubuike, meanwhile, broke through with 13 sacks and plays on what’s perennially one of the best defenses in the NFL. A recurring narrative all year will be discussing the best defensive tackle in football now that the Los Angeles Rams’ Aaron Donald has retired, and Madubuike’s name could be in the conversation.
NFL Rushing Title: Ravens running back Derrick Henry at 20-to-1 (Circa) and Bills running back James Cook at 35-to-1 (BetMGM)
′Why not give running backs some love after dismissing them as it pertains to Offensive Player of the Year? This isn’t technically an award as it’s not voted on, but the player who leads the league in rushing is annually recognized.
Henry has finished on top twice previously, in 2019 and 2020, and finished second last year in his final year with the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore runs the ball even more often than the Titans, and the bruising Henry looks like a natural fit next to the shifty Jackson.
Speaking of high run rates, Buffalo kept it on the ground at a much higher clip once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator late last season. Cook finished fourth in the league in rushing yards, and could take the next step this season.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix at 18-to-1 (BetMGM) and Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy at 25-to-1 (SuperBook)
′The best of the six quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft should ultimately win this award. And they’re all probably closer together from a quality standpoint than the odds imply, with Chicago’s Caleb Williams at +140 (i.e., risking $100 to win $140) and Washington’s Jayden Daniels at 6-to-1 so far above the rest of the pack.
Williams and Daniels are more talented than the long shots Nix and McCarthy, but there’s an argument to be made the latter duo are in better situations. Nix seems like the perfect quarterback to pair with Denver coach Sean Payton’s offense, while McCarthy has the best weapon in 2022 Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson as his top receiver.
NFL Defense Rookie of the Year: Rams edge rusher Jared Verse at 11-to-1 and Dolphins edge rusher Chop Robinson at 20-to-1
(BetMGM)
′Defensive backs, or even linebackers, can win this award but sacks give edge rushers a virtual cheat code so it’s better to start there. Minnesota edge Dallas Turner was the best prospect in the draft by any predictive measure, but there’s no value in backing him at as low as 3-to-1.
Los Angeles’ Verse and Miami’s Robinson weren’t far behind anyway. They are both athletic freaks who should be focal points right away on above-average teams that regularly draw the spotlight.
Their potential for highlight-worthy plays are high, and those viral moments carry a lot of weight in this award.
NFL Coach of the Year: Panthers coach Dave Canales at 20-to-1
(BetMGM)
′Coach of the Year is typically awarded for the biggest year-over-year improvement. No one has a better chance to improve their team’s fortune than Canales, who takes over in Carolina following a 2-15 season under previous coach Frank Reich.
The Panthers have also made some sneaky improvements offensively to complement second-year quarterback Bryce Young, including drafting running back Jonathon Brooks and trading for receiver Diontae Johnson.
Canales was an offensive miracle worker as a coordinator last season with Tampa Bay, leading the team to an NFC South title. The chances he repeats the success with the Panthers are better than this line implies.
This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.